Trump's Protectionist Policy and Its Short & Long-Term Impact on Indian GCCs

March 13, 2025
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Donald Trump’s economic policies have been characterised by a strong protectionist stance, emphasising reshoring jobs, restricting immigration, and renegotiating trade agreements. His return to the White House raises concerns for India’s Global Capability Centres (GCCs), which have become critical to multinational corporations (MNCs) for managing technology, operations, and business functions.

The US has the highest external debt to GDP ratio and relies heavily on the service sector, which accounts for 75-77% of its GDP. In the given geopolitical scenario, they cannot overlook India’s strengths, especially after Deep Seek. A project that costs USD 5 million in China costs over USD 100 million in the US.

Given the current protectionist stance, there is a possibility that the US administration may incentivise American corporations to repatriate jobs. Nevertheless, India will continue to be an attractive location for US companies due to lower operational costs, a robust talent pool, and an expansive digital ecosystem. Furthermore, research and development expenses in India are significantly lower than those in the United States. The cost efficiency and digital ecosystem advantages can enhance operational efficiency by up to 60-70%.

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Despite a protectionist stance, India remains an attractive destination for large and mid-sized US corporations, as well as corporations from other developed economies. It is an undeniable fact that Indian Global Capability Centres (GCCs) have undergone significant evolution over time. They are now prepared to transform and adapt to new realities to remain competitive, relevant, and attractive to global corporations. The following developments are anticipated:

Growth of GCCs as an Alternative to Onsite Work

  • If onsite hiring in the U.S. faces restrictions, companies will scale up their GCCs in India instead.
  • Increased investment in AI, automation, and remote workforce management will make Indian GCCs more resilient.

Integration of Various Innovative Processes and Improved Service Delivery Mechanisms

  • GCCs shall witness a large-scale transformation in service delivery mechanisms.
  • To enhance coordination and efficiency between HQ and Offshore locations, Digital Twin Process and other integrated mechanisms will be implemented.

Expansion into Tier-II Cities

  • To mitigate risks and reduce costs, GCCs may expand into Tier II Cities.
  • Companies may adopt a multi-location GCC model, splitting operations across different regions to reap talent and cost benefits.
  • India’s government incentives for GCCs in non-metro cities could further drive this trend.

Shift Toward Higher-Value Work in GCCs

  • As routine outsourcing comes under scrutiny, Indian GCCs will move up the value chain to handle R&D, AI, cybersecurity, and strategic decision-making.
  • Companies will invest in upskilling talent and leveraging digital tools to reduce dependency on U.S.-based teams.

Trump is also expected to bring in stricter data localisation and cybersecurity policies. Such regulation could require companies to process and store data locally, affecting GCCs handling cybersecurity, cloud computing, and AI. This may drive MNCs to adopt hybrid models with some functions in India and others in the U.S.

While Trump’s data localisation and cybersecurity policies could pose short-term challenges for Indian GCCs, they will also drive long-term innovation, specialisation, and compliance-focused services. Indian GCCs that adapt to stricter regulatory demands will continue to thrive, offering secure, AI-driven, and compliance-focused solutions to global corporations.

American corporations face two options: adopt a dual-region approach by keeping data-sensitive tasks in the U.S. and outsourcing non-sensitive work to India, or see the rise of compliance-driven GCCs in India that focus on global data privacy frameworks such as the U.S., EU, and India’s DPDP Act.

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Short-Term Impact on Indian GCCs:

Increased Compliance Burden

  • Companies may need to modify existing data processing structures to adhere to new regulations.
  • GCCs handling financial services, healthcare, and defense data may be required to implement stricter cybersecurity protocols.

Slowdown in New GCC Setups

  • Increased U.S. regulations could discourage some companies from expanding or setting up new GCCs in India.
  • Some firms may consider hybrid models with part of their workforce in India but critical data operations in the U.S.

Growth of Cybersecurity & Compliance Roles in GCCs

  • Demand for cybersecurity professionals, compliance officers, and risk analysts in Indian GCCs may rise.
  • GCCs may become more focused on regulatory compliance services for global corporations.

Long-Term Impact on Indian GCCs

Shift Towards Hybrid GCC Models

  • Companies may adopt a dual-region approach, keeping data-sensitive functions in the U.S. while outsourcing non-sensitive work to India.
  • Growth ofIndia-based compliance-driven GCCs that focus on global data privacy frameworks (U.S., EU, India’s DPDP Act).

Higher Investment in AI-Driven Cybersecurity Solutions

  • GCCs will increasingly invest in AI-based threat detection, encryption technologies, and cloud security platforms.
  • Indian firms may develop compliance-driven automation tools to meet evolving U.S. regulations.

Greater GCC Specialization & Value Addition

  • GCCs may shift focus from traditional IT outsourcing to higher-value tasks like cybersecurity strategy, regulatory intelligence, and risk assessment.
  • Companies will upskill Indian GCC talent to handle data privacy laws, global compliance standards, and cloud security governance.

Looking Ahead: The Roadmap

As the world navigates the complexities of the post-Trump era, the future of India’s GCCs appears poised for transformation. While the immediate challenges—rising operational costs, talent crunch, and stringent immigration policies—are formidable, they also provide a unique opportunity for businesses to reinvent themselves. The path forward involves a blend of strategic investments in automation, a commitment to nurturing local talent, and the relentless pursuit of innovation.

American corporates must now recalibrate their global sourcing strategies to ensure that they can control costs while continuously driving innovation. For India’s GCCs, the focus must shift from merely being cost-effective centres of operation to becoming hubs of strategic innovation and thought leadership. By doing so, they can play a pivotal role in shaping the future of global business, ensuring that they remain an integral part of the value chain in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.

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In conclusion, the challenges posed by President Trump’s administration have undoubtedly disrupted traditional models of talent acquisition and operational management. However, they have also paved the way for a more dynamic, innovative, and resilient approach to global business. As American corporates adapt to these changes by focusing on operational efficiency and innovative processes, India’s GCCs are set to become even more critical in driving the global competitiveness of their parent companies. The road ahead may be fraught with challenges, but with strategic foresight and a commitment to continuous improvement, the future of India’s Global Capability Centres remains bright and full of potential.

While Trump’s protectionist policies could create temporary disruptions, India’s GCCs are well-positioned to adapt and grow. The push for reshoring and nearshoring may slow some investments, but the cost, talent, and scale advantages of India ensure that GCCs will continue to thrive. Firms may diversify their footprint, but India’s role as a GCC hub will remain strong in the long term.

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